Author Topic: Charts the GAO Doesn’t Want you to See  (Read 252 times)

opsec

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Charts the GAO Doesn’t Want you to See
« on: March 04, 2010, 03:44:40 AM »
http://johngaltfla.com/blog3/2010/03/02/charts-the-gao-doesnt-want-you-to-see/#commentform

Scary stuff here. Maybe someone here can make more sense of it than I can.

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The postponed 2009 Fiscal Year Financial Report of the United States was finally released this past Friday night with little fanfare and after a quick review, one could see why they really did not want to promote this report. The fiscal condition of the U.S. can best be described by one word: HORRID. Instead of just rehashing the same old statements you will hear on the MSM every day, I thought I would display some of the charts from the report and let them speak for themselves.

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From this first chart it is easy to see that all of the fanfare last year about making government more efficient and proclaiming that costs will be brought into line is total political nonsense. The operating costs of our government have increased as the expansion into Euro-Socialism have accelerated yet the zipperheads in the House and Senate refuse to comment on or seriously attempt to fix the problem. This figure will accelerate even further because payroll tax with holding and the ability of Americans to pay taxes owed are deteriorating at a faster pace than the so-called expansion of the economy



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Mike

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Re: Charts the GAO Doesn’t Want you to See
« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2010, 01:11:58 PM »
Chart 1 should be disturbing because:
1) The deficit was nine times greater in 2009 than it was in 2007;
2) Governments operating cost was ~eight times greater in 2009 than it was in 2007;
3) The 2009 budget deficit (white column) was greater than the net operating cost (red column) for the first time in the period covered by the charts.

The bright side is that in spite of spending 8 times as much money as they did 2 years ago, government is no more efficient; their damage to the economy has reached a sort of equilibrium where more money does not translate into more damage.

Chart 2: Monthly Indeividual and Corporate Tax Witholdings, Net of Refunds
Tax withholdings is one of the best indicators as to how the economy is doing.  It is highly seasonal.  So it would have been nice to compare monthly receipt to the previous year's monthly receipt.  All of the months are there, so that can be done.  Each and every month is down compared to the previous year's equivalent month.

Chart 3 OASDI / 100 worers
OK, two many entitlees and not enough workers.
and the outlook for workers working is not good.

Chart 9 Future Interest Costs Would Soar Without Futur Policy Changes
The author agrees with this projection and I don't.
1) The chart is 'interest costs' as a percentage of GDP.  They are dividing the interest cost by the GDP.  In a highly leveraged modern economy, like ours, a small change in interest rates upwards will close highly leveraged businesses.  A small increase in interest rates will collapse GDP. It is a very risky & unstable environment.  There won't be any smooth increase over the next seventy years.  Most likely, one fine day, there will not be any credit available to Uncle Sam at any price.  There will be a cliff in interest rates and commerce will cease.


offdalip

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Re: Charts the GAO Doesn’t Want you to See
« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2010, 01:52:08 PM »
I think the take home message in all the charts John Galt FL was trying to make is that the GAO is serioulsy
underestimating the amount of money the govnmt will fall short by in the future.

Usually the GAO is pretty level headed and not rosy like the Pres office.

But in this case he is saying the GAO is downright rosy on the future compared to a more grim reality

BTW, if you like SHTF novels, JohnGaltFL just wrote a nice one on his blog , the novel is called "The Day the Dollar Died"
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Mike

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Re: Charts the GAO Doesn’t Want you to See
« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2010, 12:42:26 AM »
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Usually the GAO is pretty level headed and not rosy like the Pres office.

Nice observation!  That would have never occurred to me. Has something changed?

Yes!  Comptroller General David M. Walker resigned in Feb. 2008 and was replacedby Gene Dodaro 3/13/2008.

I recall David M. Walker resigning so as to evangelize about US debt. 

So is this new guy, Gene Dodaro, unconcerned about debt?

http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-10-468SP?source=twitter

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The economic downturn and the federal government's response continue to shape the near-term budget outlook. In fiscal year 2009 the overall federal deficit reached 9.9 percent of GDP--the largest since 1945, and the deficit is expected to decline only slightly in 2010.

I didn't read enough to see why they expect the deficit to decline....