Oh great, Mother Nature WILL strike if Iran doesn't!

[Atash Hagmahani]

http://article.nationalreview.com/422973/the-sun-also-flares/clifford-d-may

I knew about sunstorms disrupting telecommunications, but did not realize they got powerful enough to actually wipe out electronics. I don't think Iran is a real threat--in fact, I don't think they would really try to EMP us; it's just a threat in case they're attacked. Someone BIGGER than Iran might though.

The strongest solar storm on record is the Carrington Event of 1859, named after Richard Carrington, an astronomer who witnessed the super solar flare that set off the event as he was projecting an image of the sun onto a white screen. In those days, of course, there was nothing much to damage. A high-intensity burst of electromagnetic energy shot through telegraph lines, disrupting communications, shocking technicians, and setting their papers on fire. Northern Lights were visible as far south as Cuba and Hawaii. But otherwise life went on as normal.

The same would not be true were a solar storm of similar magnitude to erupt today. Instead, the infrastructure we depend on would be wiped out. Most of us would not adapt well to this sudden return to a pre-industrial age.

How likely is a repeat of the Carrington Event? Scientists say it is not only possible — it is inevitable. What they don’t know is when. The best estimates suggest that super solar storms occur once every 100 years — which means we are 50 years overdue.

Both the EMP Commission and a 2008 study by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) call for a response: hardening the electrical grid and other components of the infrastructure to increase the chances they would survive, as well as pre-positioning spares of essential, complex components of the electrical grid and other infrastructure critical to communications and emergency public services.

And it would certainly help if scientists could learn to forecast solar storms reliably. If we know one is coming, there are steps that can be taken to reduce the destruction. In particular, the electrical grid could be shut down; planes could be grounded (Air Force One is designed to withstand an EMP attack, but other planes would fall from the sky); citizens could be instructed not to leave home — in particular, to stay out of their cars, which would stop working — until the storm subsided.

President Obama has pledged $100 million to help Haiti recover from its recent earthquake. By coincidence, that’s precisely the amount that the NAS recommends be spent on measures that could limit by 60 to 70 percent the damage resulting from an EMP event. When you consider that such an event — whether naturally occurring or a “man-caused disaster” — could cause trillions of dollars in damage and claim more lives than were lost in World War II, that sounds like a reasonably priced investment.

[opsec]

I think this article is a bit sensationalistic. Yes, the grid is vulnerable as are satellites and radio electronics. But I doubt cars would be effected at all. Just make sure your computer is plugged into a surge protector. Even the largest sun flare yet recorded pales in comparison to an EMP.

[Atash Hagmahani]

Might be worth investigating upstream from more technical sources. He says it was strong enough to "shock technicians and set their papers on fire". That sounds like it would fry out microchips. 

Bear in mind this is all new to me. I had never heard of this before.

[opsec]

I remember reading about something like this. I can't put my finger on where I got the information, but apparently the reason that amount of current was able to build up was because the wires were thousands of miles long and that allowed them to act like a very efficient antenna and absorb a lot of energy which then got transmitted down the lines. I remember there was some kind of extrordinary solar flare events happening around 2004 or so. I remember looking north and I could just barely see the Aurora Borealis above the horizon. I was driving across highway 50 in southern Kansas at the time.

[ADSmith]

Here's a good short article on the 1859 event from Nasa.  http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/06may_carringtonflare.htm

[opsec]

Dang. I didn't realize just how energetic this thing was. Yea, if that hit us today, I'd worry. In fact, I'd leave. If anybody gets curious, I'm on vacation and I'll be back in a few days. Get someplace away from people and keep the radio on.

[The Future]

As scientific as the article attempts to sound, I find it very unscientific.  There are hundreds of thouands of power transformers around the world.  Thousands in Canada.  Why did only one of these fail in 1989?  I suspect that transformer and its protective systems more than atmospheric conditions....but the details are very hazy to say the least.

[ADSmith]

The 1989 event was pretty tame.  It did cause some disruptions, but mainly because the system design was deficient in many ways. 

The 1859 Carrington event was a different animal completely.  Unless adequate warning was given and lots of systems taken offline before the flare hit, we would have widespread damage.  IMO not all equipment would be damaged like some claim, but anything already being stressed would be pushed to the breaking point causing some serious failures.

[Atash Hagmahani]

I do remember clearly that at the height of the sunstorm activity, radio communications were disrupted significantly. A good strong event would probably take out communications satellites.

Just taking out long-distance telecommunications capabilities (it wouldn't have to take them all down, just enough to create a bottleneck for existing demand!) would have an impact on our lives the way we are currently accustomed to living them.