Author Topic: THE CAT IS OUT OF THE BAG!!  (Read 2698 times)

Atash Hagmahani

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8761
  • Learning from my mistakes since 1964
    • View Profile
    • Mutually Assured Survival
Re: THE CAT IS OUT OF THE BAG!!
« Reply #15 on: January 11, 2010, 06:44:05 PM »
I forgot to mention: John Pugsley is the author of The Alpha Principle.

You can download it for free here:

http://www.biorationalinstitute.com/zcontent/alpha_strategy.pdf

People paid good money for that book during the 1970s, when it was designed as a strategy for dealing with stagflation. Problem is that it doesn't solve the problem, only lessen it's impact on your ability to save money.
We're running out of petroleum. Are you ready?

Learn about food self-sufficiency and food security at New World Seeds & Tubers.

Mike

  • Ultraviolet team
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1937
    • View Profile
Re: THE CAT IS OUT OF THE BAG!!
« Reply #16 on: January 12, 2010, 01:42:37 AM »
Atash, Thanks for relating your grandfathers views on The War getting US out of the Great Depression.  That mirrors my dad's opinion.  It mirrors common knowledge, "The war got us out of the Great Depression."  Your grandfather's inflation- canceling-bad-debt is more perceptive than most, but I don't buy it.

Last summer I met an 80 year old man, Red.  He was born in 1929 and knew it.  That doesn't mean he is right about anything, but....

Red says,
"A run on the banks happen again?  The way things are right now?  Easy.  That could happen real easy."
"In a depression you'll eat things you never thought you would eat."
"The Depression didn't really end until 1946."

Interesting.  There are two other people who think the Depression ended in 1946: Bob Hoye (please don't ask me for a link) and Bob Higgs.http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2008/12/higgs_on_the_gr.html

Quote
"...
Bottom line on consumption and standard of living? On consumption you can try to go back and rework the price indexes. There were real prices that just weren't used to compute GDP because the controlled prices were used; Hugh Rockoff, Milton Friedman, Anna Schwartz have tried to estimate what the actual prices were. Using these estimates, find that real consumer outlay fell from 1941-1943; didn't get back to 1941 level till 1946. Consumers were worse off; but not the whole story. Other things happened that are not captured: deterioration of quality not measured. Price controls cause producers to sell you less good quality. Rent controls cause landlords...
"

Q: What do you call it when you have two wars and a Depression going on at the same time?
A: WWII

Ozark Lady

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 129
    • View Profile
Re: THE CAT IS OUT OF THE BAG!!
« Reply #17 on: March 18, 2011, 01:04:56 PM »
As a kid, I had some neighbors who were depression survivors.

It was interesting, they reused everything imaginable, and some not imaginable.

She washed and reused every plastic bag, my mother in law does this too, do you?

She saved every scrap of paper, and used it for notes, she didn't have "junk mail" to throw out, that was free little note pads to her.  Christmas paper is used many times before it is discarded.

They took metal quonset buildings, and made their home out of them, it was a beautiful home and you would never in a million years believe it was metal buildings.

The thing is:  trash was not really trash to them, unless it absolutely positively could not be used again.
After being a note pad, the paper became starter for their huge fireplace.

They only bought sodas in returnable bottles, no throw away cans for them!

They made all kinds of things, just piddling, they called it.  They rarely sat down without something in their hands that they were working on... filing a knife, sanding a handle, or knitting a sweater, always busy hands. 

But, they seldom went to the store!  These folks and my grandparents were teenagers during the depression.
My grandparents born in 1910 and 1911 raised me, so it was just a way of life to me.
Sure we had a/c and stuff, but still very frugal about using and reusing, repairing, and learning skills.
My granddad thought boys and girls should be 'jack of all trades' master of at least one.


Talk to your plants.... If they talk to you...
Run!

Ozark Lady

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 129
    • View Profile
Re: THE CAT IS OUT OF THE BAG!!
« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2011, 04:16:00 PM »
I just got a pdf in an email.  No idea how to post the same here.

But, it gave me some insight into how the war got us out of the Depression!

The Victory Gardens!  The article said that the Victory Gardens equalled the amount that commercial growers grew, and then the commercial crops were used to feed the war-torn countries.

So, if we grow our usual agricultural crops, but don't use any of them here, and provide our own food, then how much do we have to sell on the world markets?

I didn't think about that.  Some items were rationed, and the excess sold.
I betcha they made good money on selling to countries that were busy fighting and not planting!  It was our gardens that got us out of the Depression, and the fact that other nations were at war, and hungry!

Maybe, we can do it again?  If we can grow most of our own food.  Then we would have surplus to sell and help to retire much of our national debt?  Can we do it?

Unfortunately, the same pdf mentioned many disasters going on worldwide.  So, we really need to have Victory Gardens.  And it predicted that it would be 3 years just to overcome 2010 disasters.

Talk to your plants.... If they talk to you...
Run!

Dame

  • Red team
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 2261
  • Good luck; bad luck; who knows?
    • View Profile
Re: THE CAT IS OUT OF THE BAG!!
« Reply #19 on: March 20, 2011, 04:25:32 PM »
I just got a pdf in an email.  No idea how to post the same here.

But, it gave me some insight into how the war got us out of the Depression!

The Victory Gardens!  The article said that the Victory Gardens equalled the amount that commercial growers grew, and then the commercial crops were used to feed the war-torn countries.

So, if we grow our usual agricultural crops, but don't use any of them here, and provide our own food, then how much do we have to sell on the world markets?

I didn't think about that.  Some items were rationed, and the excess sold.
I betcha they made good money on selling to countries that were busy fighting and not planting!  It was our gardens that got us out of the Depression, and the fact that other nations were at war, and hungry!

Maybe, we can do it again?  If we can grow most of our own food.  Then we would have surplus to sell and help to retire much of our national debt?  Can we do it?

Unfortunately, the same pdf mentioned many disasters going on worldwide.  So, we really need to have Victory Gardens.  And it predicted that it would be 3 years just to overcome 2010 disasters.



This has me smiling and looking forward to another year of gardening, even if it is not as productive as I would like it to be.

Atash Hagmahani

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8761
  • Learning from my mistakes since 1964
    • View Profile
    • Mutually Assured Survival
Re: THE CAT IS OUT OF THE BAG!!
« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2011, 04:47:51 PM »
Quote
But, it gave me some insight into how the war got us out of the Depression!

The war didn't get us out of the Depression.

You probably learned that in school. However, John Pugsley who actually lived through it says "not so--the standard of living didn't rise it FELL".

Items that were abundantly available during the Great Depression--chocolate and silk hosery--disappeared during the war. Sugar, milk, bacon, butter, gasoline, and many other items were rationed during the war years.

Housing built during WW2 consisted of "cracker-box" rat traps. My neighborhood is full of it. You can see how the standards of living plunged by comparing housing of the different eras. Houses built in the late 19th century until WW1 broke out are luxuriant. During both war eras they become more modest, WW2 being the noticeable plunge in quality. A lot of WW2 housing turned into slums and numerous neighborhoods in my city were blighted then.

There is a lady down the street and around the corner from me who has been growing cucurbits ever since she and her dad had a WW2 victory garden. I encourage backyard production as much as possible. But it's not particularly efficient.

What about employment? Didn't employment levels rise? Not at all--replacing attrition when draftees were mobilized or killed in battle does not constitute increasing employment. :(

Roosevelt's pre-war record is just as catastrophic--there's a reason the Great Depression happened in the first place. Contrary to widespread misperception, unemployment rates did not fall under his reign but actually rose. Hit 25%. Also contrary to misperception, consumer prices rose after 1933. We went from Depression to a form of stagflation, with the "stagnation" part being dominant.

What did happen was that people blocked out the reality of the situation. Hollywood's propaganda machine peaked around 1939 and coasted until the 1950s when it went into decline. It's had several rises and falls since then. Eduard Bernays and his new "science" of "PR" (originally, openly referred to as "PRopaganda", then euphemized to "Public Relations") were thriving, along with the other new science of "Public Opinion" (PR's evil twin; that's where you not only test to see if the PR is working, you feed back into the PR machine--for example, you release deceptive opinion poll results in order to--influence opinion!).

People were made to believe that Roosevelt "cared" about people and was "doing something" about the situation (causing it, actually). We were "sovietized", and have never really recovered all of our lost freedoms.

It's somewhat the same way that many people nowadays can speak of the "economic recovery" when in fact the economy continues breaking down at an accelerating pace. Flooding certain specific markets with "liquidity" does not make family-supporting jobs magically appear, nor does having a gigantic glut of houses sitting empty improve our standard of living.

Getting back to history, it was circa 1948--after the war--that standards of living started rising. That was also the start of a major bull market.
We're running out of petroleum. Are you ready?

Learn about food self-sufficiency and food security at New World Seeds & Tubers.

Beeherder

  • Guest
Re: THE CAT IS OUT OF THE BAG!!
« Reply #21 on: March 21, 2011, 12:11:42 AM »
What part if any did the Korean War have to do with that bull market?

Seems like jobs were still mighty scarce in the late 40s so those out of work veterans could go back to war for employment.