Author Topic: Everyone please read this  (Read 1135 times)

Atash Hagmahani

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Everyone please read this
« on: September 12, 2009, 11:59:27 PM »
Please read this editorial and I encourage you to comment below. If you don't understand it, or aren't sure what it means, I suggest saying so.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dancy/2009/0911.html

We're running out of petroleum. Are you ready?

Learn about food self-sufficiency and food security at New World Seeds & Tubers.

Mike

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Re: Everyone please read this
« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2009, 12:41:58 AM »
That was a very good article.

It is hard to imagine yields of corn increasing above the present 152 bushels/ acre....

Modern agriculture is energy intensive.  With Peak Oil, choices need to be made about energy allocation.  Transportation energy could be allocated to agriculture.  But preliminary allocations are from agriculture to transportation. (corn-based ethanol).

The Future probably should be a 'silly' gardening hobby for all of us.

For those of us not in a good hobby area, we should consider getting relocated, pronto.  My main interest is outside the US.  But I still peruse craigslist and foreclosure.com.  Alabama seems like a place that has a lot of value for the price of small acreages.

Atash Hagmahani

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Re: Everyone please read this
« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2009, 10:48:22 AM »
West Virginia.

Land is cheap. The winters are hellaceous, but the summers hot enough to bring in crops. Crime surprisingly moderate despite the poverty.

The problem is lack of local employment. But simply set up a business that is not very location-driven, like internet sales.
We're running out of petroleum. Are you ready?

Learn about food self-sufficiency and food security at New World Seeds & Tubers.

Mike

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Re: Everyone please read this
« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2009, 11:10:14 AM »
Yes!  WV is also on my radar, as is MS, OH, MI, & SD.

Of these places, I think I would like the WV climate the best.  I like winters that will kill cockroaches and other annoying bugs.  The northern states get demerits for too cold of winters.

Alabama seems to have the best deal on small acreages.

hancocs

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Re: Everyone please read this
« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2009, 06:45:19 PM »
Even if we could get land and raise and grow your own food while the rest of the world is starving...How to you go about protecting all this from the ones that feel they need your food more then you do, and will do anything to get it???? :confused013:

Mike

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Re: Everyone please read this
« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2009, 07:29:41 PM »
Even if we could get land and raise and grow your own food while the rest of the world is starving...How to you go about protecting all this from the ones that feel they need your food more then you do, and will do anything to get it???? :confused013:

That is an important point!

In my opinion, that is why a lot of us need to consider relocating.  In a sense, we are all in this together.  In a sense, we are not.  My neighbors & I are all in this together.   My neighbors, friends, and relatives are pretty good.  But when the tide turns, our situation won't be so good.

That is why I have been seriously considering relocation places.  Here is my long list:
Paraguay
Anglo islands of the Caribbean
Peru
Belize
Panama

Malaysia

Uganda

Alabama
W. Virginia
Mississippi
Michigan?
Ohio?
Pennsylvania??

MountainMeg

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Re: Everyone please read this
« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2009, 07:58:49 PM »
My mom has mentioned moving from MI, where she's been her entire life, to PA near us.  Says she's jealous of the longer growing season here.  MI was fairly chilly this summer and the growing season unusually short.  I don't think she'd ever move, but would love to have her here.

Quote
# U.S. corn yields have increased from 25 bushels per acre in 1900 to 40 bushels per acre in 1950, the start of the Green Revolution. We produced 120 bushels per acre in 2000. Time magazine noted last month U.S. farms now produce “an astounding 152 bushels per acre”.
# The amount of energy used to produce these yields has increased 30 to 50 times from that used in 1950

I found it interesting that a 30-50x increase in energy only brought a 4-fold increase in crop yield.  But it makes sense, there's a finite amount of food you can grow on a plant.

hancocs

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Re: Everyone please read this
« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2009, 08:05:10 PM »
I for one would like to stay in the USA if possible. But I have also thought about investing in a fairly good size sailboat to go abroad if absoultly necessary. The boat, a 65th foot sailboat called the Rapture.

http://www.yachtworld.com/boats/1985/Custom-Steel-Gaff-Rigged-Schooner-1597314/Everett-Marina/WA/United-States
« Last Edit: September 13, 2009, 08:09:50 PM by hancocs »

opsec

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Re: Everyone please read this
« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2009, 01:19:59 AM »
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico-drought7-2009sep07,0,6988447.story

This is of major concern to me. I think drought is going to drive human migration and predation. I think we are going to see a lot more mexicans on the streets of America soon.

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offdalip

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Re: Everyone please read this
« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2009, 05:45:16 AM »
Mike wrote

Quote
Anglo islands of the Caribbean


I've never even heard of them......
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The Future

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Re: Everyone please read this
« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2009, 06:27:01 AM »
Please read this editorial and I encourage you to comment below. If you don't understand it, or aren't sure what it means, I suggest saying so.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dancy/2009/0911.html



Timely article.  Here are my comments:
1. This underlines the need to grow your own.  Ensure you are allocating around 70% toward calorific crops (most people go overboard on salads)

2. See Atash's comments elsewhere on storability without energy inputs E.g. "winter" squash, corn, dry foods like beans

3. If we destroy all the cash in the world we could still produce all the food the world needs to eat.

4. On Yields, seemingly impressive until you realize that the starting point represented an extremely inefficient setup.  Be humble enough to learn form cultures that have several thousand years of fine tuning their perrenial polycultures for superior yields.  Annual, monoculture, industrial farming is a glitzy disaster.  I never plant to own a tractor.  Ever.

5. "Organic agricultural methods could support roughly 4 billion people – but the global population has grown to over 6.5 billion"  Organic methods outyield "conventional" methods and thus can support a greater population.  Sustainably.  The real topic of discussion should be on rates of population increase.  Poverty is generally correlated with a higher birth rate (the theory is increasing chances of survival) while wealth a low birth rate (more certainty, higher costs but perhaps also selfishness).  If we convert to an organic high yielding system, will we just turn around and populate the world with 10 billion people (See the book Overshoot.  Also agent smith from the matrix on humans as a virus)

6. The Western diet has far more than 7:1 energy ratio, more like 40:1 once you factor in oil based herbicide, pesticide, sowing, reaping, threshing, packaging, cooling, transport, advertizing etc.  Law of diminishing returns make the green revolution look like the foolishness it is.

7. Water solutions - polycultures, perennials, natural mulches, rocks, recycle cardboard, compost in place, swales.  There are places growing traditional crops on 6 inches of rain per year.  How?  Again humility to others yields wisdom!  There is the same volume of water on the planet as it always has been.  And plants can grow well in properly diluted ocean water.

8. Westernized diets are evil.  Spread them and spread evil.

9. Second lastly, consider a grain free diet. (Just 4 crops among 100,000 edibles Corn, rice, wheat, (potatoes?) make up 80% of the worlds food consumption?)  These plants represent a juvenile stage in ecology.  A mature tree will outyield these 4:1.  And you can still grow your juvenile shrubs, vines etc under the tree....

10. Lastly: when will people get their facts right on ethanol.  88% of corn in the US is NOT grown for people.  It is animal feed.  Ethanol from corn in by far NOT the best choice.  It is simply an outcome of taxes for subsidies.  A higher volume of ethanol can come from mesquite growing in ditches in the desert.  Unirrigated and wild.  Ditto for seaweed.  As for the numbers, why doesn't anyone quote a study that states the actual EROEI for ethanol.  And dare I even say the EROEI for diesel or gasoline!  Ethanol is being used as a scapegoat while we know that gasoline and diesel have no long term future.  See David Blume (book, DVD, website, youtube) for total destruction of ethanol myths.  Oh and he patented a technique of using the "waste" for corn ethanol production as a herbicide (which proved to destroy about 90% of the common weeds if I recall).
Wise selfishness is taking care of everyone else so that they don't bring harm to you.

MountainMeg

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Re: Everyone please read this
« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2009, 10:57:48 AM »
Quote
I think drought is going to drive human migration and predation.

I've seen what in hindsight is probably just the tip of the drought in CA.  One of the things I was *very* careful about checking before agreeing to move was rainfall and drought maps.  *crossed fingers* Hopefully weather shifts won't  change much where we are as the rain is pretty regular during growing time.

Mike

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Re: Everyone please read this
« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2009, 01:26:06 PM »
Quote
I've seen what in hindsight is probably just the tip of the drought in CA.  One of the things I was *very* careful about checking before agreeing to move was rainfall and drought maps.  *crossed fingers* Hopefully weather shifts won't  change much where we are as the rain is pretty regular during growing time.

re:
Quote
Alabama
W. Virginia
Mississippi
Michigan?
Ohio?
Pennsylvania??

ratchet ratchet ratchet.


Pennsylvania??
Alabama
W. Virginia
Mississippi
Michigan?
Ohio?


Horsea

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Re: Everyone please read this
« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2009, 08:34:08 AM »
People still want to be excessively individualistic.  As far as I  can see, living in groups is the only way to go, for  now.  One house=one family or one person - not any more.
"Our 'neoconservatives' are neither new nor conservative, but old as Babylon and evil as Hell."  -Edward Abbey

Mike

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Re: Everyone please read this
« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2009, 09:41:42 AM »
People still want to be excessively individualistic.  As far as I  can see, living in groups is the only way to go, for  now.  One house=one family or one person - not any more.

Yes!!!

Beginning in 1932 the US began government incentives to build houses.  The incentive increased in 1942 with the GI Bill.  It got crazy in the sixties and seventies with HUD; in the eighties and nineties there were even more programs to increase home ownership,.... which translated into more home building.

Could it get any crazier?

Yes!  The private sector took over government excess by securitizing mortgages.

In the 2000s securitization of mortgages increased the availability of financing available to anyone who wanted to buy a home.

So now there are so many houses out there that there is no reason in the world why we should have to double up.  But we do.  Why?

Debt has caused people to lose their homes.  Former home owners are doubling up with friends, relatives, and strangers.

********
In a more macro sense, the experiment in housing was a disaster.  And that it was done on the suburban one-family-one-home mindset compounded.

Our thought and energy should have been put into local agriculture and transportation.

*******
To get back to 'too individualistic.'  Yes,  Planting our own yard and getting a shotgun and a food reserve isn't a real answer when our neighbors have nothing.


 

anything