Author Topic: Commercial real estate walk-aways  (Read 291 times)

Atash Hagmahani

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Commercial real estate walk-aways
« on: January 27, 2010, 01:36:32 AM »
I think a friend sent me this one:

http://www.mybudget360.com/commercial-real-estate-and-tishman-and-blackrock-walking-away-from-a-44-billion-cre-deal-how-to-lose-66-percent-on-an-11000-unit-property-why-walking-away-from-cre-is-no-different-from-walking/

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It is becoming more of a preferred strategy to systematically walk away from commercial real estate debt.  We have now had two large Wall Street organizations in Morgan Stanley and Tishman and Blackrock Inc. deciding, by voluntary choice, to walk away from their contractual obligations on commercial real estate.  Now much has been made regarding the commercial real estate debacle because some $3.5 trillion in commercial real estate debt is outstanding.  This number is enormous and many of the bank failures that we’ll be seeing on Fridays this year will come from bad loans in the commercial sector.

Part of the problem with commercial real estate is the way deals got financed.  Many of the loans are made under 5 to 10 year terms and unlike a 30 year loan, need to be refinanced at the end of the deal.  Well this is a problem when the property securitizing the loan is now valued at 30, 40, or even 50 percent lower.  Unlike residential real estate that saw loan and home values peak in 2005 and 2006, commercial real estate loans saw volume peak in 2008:
...
Now walk through this deal.  The place was purchased at $5.4 billion.  It was financed with $4.4 billion in commercial real estate loans.  The place is now estimated to be valued at $1.8 billion.  This is a $3.6 billion loss.  Now the first buyers are making a conscious business decision to walk away from their obligation to pay on this property.  Clearly Tishman and Blackrock have the money to make the payment if they wanted to but they don’t.  But who is the big loser here?  Those that they sold the securities to.
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opsec

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Re: Commercial real estate walk-aways
« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2010, 01:50:44 AM »
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But who is the big loser here?  Those that they sold the securities to.

Uh...what are securities, who were they being sold to and why?  :confused004:
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offdalip

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Re: Commercial real estate walk-aways
« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2010, 05:45:00 AM »
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Uh...what are securities, who were they being sold to and why? 


a security can be anything you can buy or sell like a bond, a credit defaukt swap, an annuity or even a mortgage backed security in the case of Real Estate which can be commercial or residential.

they are sold to investor groups or banks presumably to earn a return pn your investment
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Re: Commercial real estate walk-aways
« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2010, 10:16:35 AM »
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Clearly Tishman and Blackrock have the money to make the payment if they wanted to but they don’t.  But who is the big loser here?  Those that they sold the securities to.

This is clear based on what evidence?
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Mike

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Re: Commercial real estate walk-aways
« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2010, 11:24:12 AM »
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Clearly Tishman and Blackrock have the money to make the payment if they wanted to but they don’t.  But who is the big loser here?  Those that they sold the securities to.

This is clear based on what evidence?

I have no evidence but I would bet they could pay off any single obligation, but not all of the obligations that will be going bad.
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Who else might have bought commercial real estate mortgages?  Pension funds?? or anyone else looking for good returns backed by a 'secure' asset.

Atash Hagmahani

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Re: Commercial real estate walk-aways
« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2010, 12:44:06 PM »
The original article mentions CALPERS (California State workers Pension). A notorious hotbed of political activism and fraud.
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Re: Commercial real estate walk-aways
« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2010, 07:02:20 PM »
Yeah, and horrible investment decisions as well. Public sector portfolio managers.  :rolleyes008:

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Re: Commercial real estate walk-aways
« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2010, 06:43:35 AM »
Wise selfishness is taking care of everyone else so that they don't bring harm to you.

Atash Hagmahani

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Re: Commercial real estate walk-aways
« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2010, 11:47:36 PM »
There are so many things wrong with this article it's hard to know where to begin.

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Second, bears forget that REITs are unlike most other companies in that they own real landmark assets in real cities that have real value and have truly been crushed in price. If you are the portfolio manager of a large sovereign wealth fund or run a $20 billion portfolio at a big insurance company, you need to buy real, big things at low values to make a difference in your portfolio

OK, so if I buy shares of a REIT, I get to claim my share of their holdings? Let's see, I'll take this prime corner on this busy intersection right here....

IT'S STILL PAPER ASSETS! If the REIT went bankrupt, your share = $0.

And "being truly crushed in price" is IRRELEVANT. Or is he claiming that US equities markets are highly inefficient, and there's a big arbitrage situation here?!

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Let me put it this way: Would you rather buy paper shares of a technology company that could lose its innovation edge at any time? Or half a block of Manhattan at a 50% discount? Yeah, me, too.

A bifurcation (a type of logical fallacy). "False" or "False" = false (not "true").

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I heard this angle from a friend who attended a Goldman Sachs-hosted hedge fund dinner recently. He learned that the big sovereign wealth funds and insurance companies, which had representatives at the dinner, are among the quiet but big bidders for major hunks of prime U.S. real estate through private-equity funds, private transactions and public-equity companies.

Hey, if you can't trust a hot tip from Goldman-Sachs, what can you trust?  :laughing002:

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They apparently believe that the only real problem with U.S. commercial properties is their underlying high-cost debt. So to the extent that they can take out the debtors with cash, they can wait out the rest of the property recession and be ready for the next upswing. This is the advantage of being well-capitalized and having a 20-year time horizon.

Yeah, if you don't mind your bet being on the losing side for the next 20 years.  :laughing002:

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At the same time, REITs that zealously guarded their cash during the recent downturn are themselves helping to lift commercial real estate out of its epic slump. The Globe and Mail newspaper in Toronto reported last week that $5.4 billion had been spent on 990 transactions in the Toronto area alone last year, as strong REITs pounced on distressed properties owned by their weaker brethren.

Someone once told me that the 3rd buyer is the winner. The first and 2nd buyers lose their shirts.
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offdalip

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Re: Commercial real estate walk-aways
« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2010, 07:15:45 AM »
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They apparently believe that the only real problem with U.S. commercial properties is their underlying high-cost debt. So to the extent that they can take out the debtors with cash, they can wait out the rest of the property recession and be ready for the next upswing. This is the advantage of being well-capitalized and having a 20-year time horizon.

Yeah, if you don't mind your bet being on the losing side for the next 20 years. 


HA HA HA!  That's the biggest fallacy in the universe!!!!  Tooo funny  :laughing002:

Sure,.... in 20 years the investment won't be underwater anymore, maybe even up a little bit , IN NOMINAL DOLLARS,  Ahem...... Hello0000, McFly... Anybody home?!?!?

in 20 years their property is worth the same in nominal dollars as they originally put in or 5-10% more, BUT in real inflation adjusted dollars it is down 90% if the inflation rate is over 5-7%

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anything