Author Topic: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!  (Read 7509 times)

offdalip

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H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« on: April 24, 2009, 09:43:06 AM »
By Jason Gale

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Disease trackers are trying to determine whether a previously unseen strain of influenza in the U.S. is related to more than 130 cases of severe respiratory illness in Mexico and may spark a pandemic.

A new variant of H1N1 swine influenza has sickened at least seven patients in California and Texas, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta said yesterday. Mexico’s Health Minister Jose Cordova canceled classes in the capital today and recommended citizens avoid public places after 20 fatalities from an illness possibly caused by an H1N1 flu virus.
“The infection of humans with a novel influenza-A virus infection of animal origins, as has happened here, is of concern because of the risk, albeit small, that this could represent the appearance of viruses with pandemic potential,” the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said in a statement.

Scientists in both countries and Canada are studying the cases to determine whether they pose a larger public health threat. A pandemic can start when a novel influenza type-A virus, to which almost no one has natural immunity, emerges and begins spreading. Experts believe the so-called 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, which may have killed as many as 50 million people, began when an avian flu virus jumped to people.

Authorities in Mexico asked the Public Health Agency of Canada to help identify what’s causing the lung infection that has also spread to five health-care workers, the Ottawa-based agency said in an e-mail yesterday. (snip)

http://uk.reuters.com/article/usTopN...53N22820090424

WHO concerned at new swine flu in U.S.
Fri Apr 24, 2009 11:57am BST

GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization (WHO) voiced concern on Friday at a confirmed outbreak of swine flu in the United States and what it called more than 800 human "influenza-like" cases in Mexico, including about 60 deaths. It jumps from 20 to 60!

The United Nations agency said it had activated its Strategic Health Operations Center (SHOC) -- its command and control center for acute public health events -- but could not say whether it was considering issuing a travel advisory.

U.S. public health officials said on Thursday that seven people had been diagnosed with a new kind of swine flu in California and Texas, while Mexican authorities were due to announce test results later on Friday, WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said in Geneva.

"We are in daily contact with U.S., Canadian and Mexican authorities," Hartl told Reuters.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that the virus was a never-before-seen mixture of viruses typical among pigs, birds and humans. All 7 American patients had recovered.

WHO spokeswoman Fadela Chaib said Mexican authorities had noticed unusual activity at the end of the flu season in March and April.

"To date there have been some 800 suspected cases with flu-like illness, with 57 deaths in the Mexico City area.

"Similar cases have since been found in San Luis Potosi in central Mexico. The number of suspected cases is 24 suspected cases and 3 deaths," she told a news briefing.

Mexican Health Minister Jose Angel Cordoba said that it was cancelling classes for millions of children in the heart of the country on Friday after influenza killed around 20 people in recent weeks. Mexico's flu season had extended for longer this year.

Case Fatality Rate: 800 suspected cases and 57 deaths = 7.1%

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/swine/investi....htm#residents

Residents of California and Texas

CDC has identified human cases of swine influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in people in these areas. CDC is working with local and state health agencies to investigate these cases. We have determined that this virus is contagious and is spreading from human to human. However, at this time, we have not determined how easily the virus spreads between people. As with any infectious disease, we are recommending precautionary measures for people residing in these areas.

- Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze.
- Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.
- Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hands cleaners are also effective.
- Try to avoid close contact with sick people.
- If you get sick, CDC recommends that you stay home from work or school and limit contact with others to keep from infecting them.
- Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread that way.
- There is no vaccine available at this time, so it is important for people living in these areas to take steps to prevent spreading the virus to others. If people are ill, they should attempt to stay at home and limit contact with others. Healthy residents living in these areas should take everyday preventive actions.

People who live in these areas who develop an illness with fever and respiratory symptoms, such as cough and runny nose, and possibly other symptoms, such as body aches, nausea, or vomiting or diarrhea, should contact their health care provider. Their health care provider will determine whether influenza testing is needed.

Clinicians

Clinicians should consider the possibility of swine influenza virus infections in patients presenting with febrile respiratory illness who:

- Live in San Diego County or Imperial County, California or San Antonio, Texas or
- Have traveled to San Diego and/or Imperial County, California or San Antonio, Texas or
- Have been in contact with ill persons from these areas in the 7 days prior to their illness onset.
- If swine flu is suspected, clinicians should obtain a respiratory swab for swine influenza testing and place it in a refrigerator (not a freezer). Once collected, the clinician should contact their state or local health department to facilitate transport and timely diagnosis at a state public health laboratory.

State Public Health Laboratories

Laboratories should send all unsubtypable influenza A specimens as soon as possible to the Viral Surveillance and Diagnostic Branch of the CDC’s Influenza Division for further diagnostic testing.

Public Health /Animal Health Officials

Officials should conduct thorough case and contact investigations to determine the source of the swine influenza virus, extent of community illness and the need for timely control measures.

More information about swine flu can be found on the CDC website at http://www.cdc.gov/flu/swine/index.htm.
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mantis308

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2009, 08:53:56 PM »
If you want some relatively quick data on actual flu activity levels, google flu trends is about 2 weeks faster in trending flu activity. http://www.google.org/flutrends/
I must not fear
Fear is the mind-killer
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration
I will face my fear
I will permit it to pass over me and through me
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing
Only I remain

Atash Hagmahani

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2009, 10:33:44 PM »
The Center for Disease Control's information on the topic is useless...and the wording "suspect".
We're running out of petroleum. Are you ready?

Learn about food self-sufficiency and food security at New World Seeds & Tubers.

opsec

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #3 on: April 25, 2009, 11:30:50 AM »
Anybody remember the story of a lab animal being "mistakenly" injected with both the bird flu and a human strain of flu and then being shipped to some laboratory in Europe not to long ago?...now this.
"The difference between a pessimist and an optimist is that the pessimist usually has more information"

"Where law ends tyranny begins. Where law begins, tyranny becomes legal"

"Truth is hate to those that hate truth".

darwinslair

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #4 on: April 25, 2009, 06:29:48 PM »
This has the wonderful aspect of having genes from swine, avian, and human flu virus.  7% expected mortality rate.  will solve food crisis if it goes airbourn.

<smile> cute, isnt it?

Tom
If you can catch it and kill it, or grow it, dont buy it.

darwinslair

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If you can catch it and kill it, or grow it, dont buy it.

opsec

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #6 on: April 25, 2009, 07:04:58 PM »
7%...that's all? Didn't the 1918 pandemic have a higher mortality rate than that?
"The difference between a pessimist and an optimist is that the pessimist usually has more information"

"Where law ends tyranny begins. Where law begins, tyranny becomes legal"

"Truth is hate to those that hate truth".

Average Joe

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #7 on: April 25, 2009, 07:38:03 PM »
Better have those N-95 masks ready, and don't shake hands with anyone.  Avoid people if you can, and keep your hand sanitizer handy.

The Future

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #8 on: April 25, 2009, 08:42:27 PM »
This has the wonderful aspect of having genes from swine, avian, and human flu virus.  7% expected mortality rate.  will solve food crisis if it goes airbourn.

<smile> cute, isnt it?

Tom

Maybe.  Maybe not.  As long as the 1% that actually grow and pick food are not among the 7%....or unless u were implying dead carcasses (people) would be food....
Wise selfishness is taking care of everyone else so that they don't bring harm to you.

MountainMeg

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #9 on: April 25, 2009, 08:44:08 PM »
7%... Still more of a chance than I like  :think005:.  So, besides being able to stay home for an extended time, what should we have on hand if it heads this way?

Ryder

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #10 on: April 25, 2009, 08:59:41 PM »
Lots of stuff out there about handwashing, mask wearingfor sick and well alike, keep your body rested and strong. Maybe get into the oriental method of bowing for a greeting. If it gets bad isolation is still a possibility which I have planned for.
Gotta learn how to knit socks and mittens if you want to survive in montana.

opsec

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #11 on: April 25, 2009, 11:01:43 PM »
http://www.med-owl.com/health/H5N1-Virus-Therapy.html

The author of this article seems very knowlegable on the H5N1 Avian Flu virus.

Quote
Many inflammatory cascades have self limiting components - the release of an inflammatory agent often leads to the production of both anti-inflammatory and inflammatory compounds.  But as microbes evolve, they sometimes begin producing a mix of toxins that interfere with the control mechanisms of the immune system.  This seems to be the case for the deadly strains of bird flu. The H5N1 virus is not only partially resistant to the cytokines that are involved in fighting viruses, but it also reduces the production of anti-inflammatory cytokines - in essence, it enhances the accelerator while impairing the brakes, and the immune system goes out of control and crashes.


This cytokine storm is what actually kills people, not the flu itself.

Quote
Review of these articles makes it clear that curcumin holds great promise as an agent that may reduce the lethal effects of the avian flu cytokine storm.

Curcumin is quite inexpensive. At Vitacost (where I buy most of my supplements), 60 capsules of  NSI Turmeric (standardized 95% curcumin) 900 mg  cost just under $14 when I last checked - less than the typical co-pay for a prescription.

Quote
In addition to inhibiting neuraminidase, resveratrol also sends a message to cells to stop manufacturing viruses.

Quote
N-Acetyl-Cysteine (or NAC) is a particular activated form of the amino acid cysteine. It has been shown to reduce lethality of influenza A in a number of animal studies

Quote
There are many other compounds that modulate the immune system and which may be of benefit in treating avian flu: a few include melatonin, garlic, green tea, and ginger
.

Guess what I'm buying the next time I get to a health food store...

Quote
If the H5N1 avian flu was spreading in my community and my doctor offered me a pharmaceutical TNF blocker and a neuramidase inhibitor, I would take them
.

I think I'll schedule an appointment to see my doctor too.

Quote
Further discussion of these topics at www.med-owl.com/herbal-antivirals/




"The difference between a pessimist and an optimist is that the pessimist usually has more information"

"Where law ends tyranny begins. Where law begins, tyranny becomes legal"

"Truth is hate to those that hate truth".

Mike

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #12 on: April 25, 2009, 11:15:58 PM »
http://www.singtomeohmuse.com/viewtopic.php?t=3238&start=270&sid=215307ae2921ccb18844e4c1e3969f01

The link is a forum dedicated to pandemic watch.

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2009 11:30 pm    Post subject:     Reply with quote
Monotreme and statisticians among us,

Quote
what are the odds that 2 strains of pandemic flu virus would get up and running at the same time?

Quote
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2009 11:38 pm    Post subject:     Reply with quote
This fact that this seems to be what is happening is making me glued to my computer for the last few days.

Quote
Auckland students being tested for swine fluSun, 26 Apr 2009 4:05p.m.

A group of 25 staff and students of Rangitoto College on Auckland's North Shore are being tested for the deadly swine influenza after returning from a school trip to Mexico.

The group of 22 senior students and three teachers arrived into New Zealand after spending three weeks in Mexico.

After some of the group presented symptoms of an influenza-like illness,

Mike

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #13 on: April 25, 2009, 11:46:14 PM »
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/late-night-open-thread.html
Quote
by CalculatedRisk on 4/26/2009 12:04:00 AM

Just an open thread for discussion ... this story is concerning:

From the NY Times: Students Fall Ill in New York, and Swine Flu Is Likely Cause

    Tests show that eight students at a Queens high school are likely to have contracted the human swine flu virus that has struck Mexico and a small number of other people in the United States, health officials in New York City said yesterday.

    The students were among about 100 at St. Francis Preparatory School in Fresh Meadows who became sick in the last few days, said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, New York City’s health commissioner.

    “All the cases were mild, no child was hospitalized, no child was seriously ill,” Dr. Frieden said.

Comment: I was just looking to read about risk.....

darwinslair

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2009, 08:05:53 AM »
just some cuteness for those of use buying stock in tinfoil.

http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/2009/04/baxter-to-pursue-swine-flu-virus-to-control-mexico-outbreak.html


Baxter to work to contain Mexico flu outbreak
April 25, 2009 2:28 PM | 4 Comments

Deerfield-based medical product giant Baxter International Inc. is working with the World Health Organization on a potential vaccine to curb the spread of the swine flu outbreak in Mexico, the company confirmed today.

Baxter, which has a growing vaccine business, has worked with foreign countries in the past to develop vaccines for the H5N1 virus commonly known as bird flu. Baxter has a cell-based technology that allows the company to more rapidly produce vaccines in the event of a pandemic than a decades-old method that uses eggs to process vaccines and can take weeks or even months longer.

"Upon learning about the swine flu outbreak in Mexico yesterday, Baxter requested a virus sample from WHO to do laboratory testing for potentially developing an experimental vaccine," company spokesman Christopher Bona told the Tribune this afternoon. "Baxter has research and development and manufacturing pandemic planning expertise to rapidly develop candidate vaccines against potentially emerging influenza viruses."

In the past, Baxter has developed vaccines and worked with countries to stockpile vaccines even while they undergo experimental testing. The idea behind the government stockpiles, in the case of the bird flu, for example, is to prepare against outbreak.

The company would not say whether the U.S. or other countries have contacted Baxter. Other companies, too, develop vaccines and have been used to stockpile vaccines. It's unclear whether other vaccine makers have also contacted the WHO.

Because it's so early in the vaccine development process, Baxter would not estimate on when a candidate vaccine would emerge for potential use.

The Mexican government is working to control a swine flu outbreak that has killed more than 65 people and potentially infected more than 1,000 in recent weeks, according to government and news reports.
*********

Now, from a few weeks ago:

http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2009/02/27/8560781.html

Baxter: Product contained live bird flu virus

By Helen Branswell, THE CANADIAN PRESS

Last Updated: 27th February 2009, 3:26pm

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The company that released contaminated flu virus material from a plant in Austria confirmed Friday that the experimental product contained live H5N1 avian flu viruses.

And an official of the World Health Organization’s European operation said the body is closely monitoring the investigation into the events that took place at Baxter International’s research facility in Orth-Donau, Austria.

“At this juncture we are confident in saying that public health and occupational risk is minimal at present,” medical officer Roberta Andraghetti said from Copenhagen, Denmark.

“But what remains unanswered are the circumstances surrounding the incident in the Baxter facility in Orth-Donau.”

The contaminated product, a mix of H3N2 seasonal flu viruses and unlabelled H5N1 viruses, was supplied to an Austrian research company. The Austrian firm, Avir Green Hills Biotechnology, then sent portions of it to sub-contractors in the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Germany.

The contamination incident, which is being investigated by the four European countries, came to light when the subcontractor in the Czech Republic inoculated ferrets with the product and they died. Ferrets shouldn’t die from exposure to human H3N2 flu viruses.

Public health authorities concerned about what has been described as a “serious error” on Baxter’s part have assumed the death of the ferrets meant the H5N1 virus in the product was live. But the company, Baxter International Inc., has been parsimonious about the amount of information it has released about the event.

On Friday, the company’s director of global bioscience communications confirmed what scientists have suspected.

“It was live,” Christopher Bona said in an email.

The contaminated product, which Baxter calls “experimental virus material,” was made at the Orth-Donau research facility. Baxter makes its flu vaccine — including a human H5N1 vaccine for which a licence is expected shortly — at a facility in the Czech Republic.

People familiar with biosecurity rules are dismayed by evidence that human H3N2 and avian H5N1 viruses somehow co-mingled in the Orth-Donau facility. That is a dangerous practice that should not be allowed to happen, a number of experts insisted.

Accidental release of a mixture of live H5N1 and H3N2 viruses could have resulted in dire consequences.

While H5N1 doesn’t easily infect people, H3N2 viruses do. If someone exposed to a mixture of the two had been simultaneously infected with both strains, he or she could have served as an incubator for a hybrid virus able to transmit easily to and among people.

That mixing process, called reassortment, is one of two ways pandemic viruses are created.

There is no suggestion that happened because of this accident, however.

“We have no evidence of any reassortment, that any reassortment may have occurred,” said Andraghetti.

“And we have no evidence of any increased transmissibility of the viruses that were involved in the experiment with the ferrets in the Czech Republic.”

Baxter hasn’t shed much light — at least not publicly — on how the accident happened. Earlier this week Bona called the mistake the result of a combination of “just the process itself, (and) technical and human error in this procedure.”

He said he couldn’t reveal more information because it would give away proprietary information about Baxter’s production process.

Andraghetti said Friday the four investigating governments are co-operating closely with the WHO and the European Centre for Disease Control in Stockholm, Sweden.

“We are in very close contact with Austrian authorities to understand what the circumstances of the incident in their laboratory were,” she said.

“And the reason for us wishing to know what has happened is to prevent similar events in the future and to share lessons that can be learned from this event with others to prevent similar events. ... This is very important.”
If you can catch it and kill it, or grow it, dont buy it.