Let's get ready for 2009.

[Atash Hagmahani]

Next year is going to be a hard one. The Alt-A mortgages have already started to reset. I will post more details tomorrow.

 

[Atash Hagmahani]

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/12/15/fitch-alt-a-mortgages-deteriorating-more-rapidly-than-expected/

Fitch said it now expects losses on all Alt-A collateral to far exceed the estimates of its ‘moderate stress’ scenario in its late ratings update earlier this year. “Market developments, ongoing home-price declines and loan performance trends in the Alt-A sector over the prior six months have effectively eliminated the possibility of this stress scenario,” said Fitch in a statement.

The rating agency said it now expects average cumulative losses om 2005, 2006 and 2007 vintage Alt-A transactions to hit 2.72, 6.78 and 9.58 percent, respectively, up dramatically from expectations at the agency earlier this year.

Fitch cited a “rapid increase in 60+ day delinquencies experienced over the past six months,” despite servicers’ collective efforts to hold off on actual foreclosure sales — likely implying that a halt to foreclosures is having little effect in resolving borrower delinquencies. Between May and October 2008, Fitch said that 60+ day delinquencies for the 2007 vintage increased from 8.80 percent to 14.65 percent; 2006 and 2005 vintages also experienced steep increases rising from 10.30 percent to 14.24 percent and 6.57 percent to 8.79 percent, respectively.

While delinquencies are continuing to pile up, cumulative losses are not — at least, not yet.. “The small increase in cumulative losses relative to the rising level of 60+ day delinquencies reflects, in part, the lengthening foreclosure/liquidation timeline being experienced throughout all vintages,” analysts at the agency wrote.

All of which means that it’s time to get ready for a whole new slew of downgrades to Alt-A in the coming few weeks. Fitch warned in its note Monday that it expects that it will downgrade many senior bonds to below investment grade — just in time for fourth quarter earnings.

[Dame]

My father, now deceased, was extreamely extroverted.  He covered all business and personal cash flow shortages playing poker.

Poker lessons I was taught:  Do not play with family, freinds or neighbors.  Don't bet more than you can afford to loose, even people with internal supercomputers can loose, don't play if you do not feel an active sense of the jugular while playing, and for heaven's sake know when to cut your losses. Fold, walk and do not look back.

I decided in adolescence to not play at all.  I could not see me, ALWAYS following ALL the rules; and unless I was willing to follow all the rules all the time, I WOULD NOT WIN.

I've always refused to play the markets; any of them, unless I have actual product to deliver if I guess wrong.  I also avoid production contracts.  Both strike me as very fancy versions of poker.

[Atash Hagmahani]

Well, Dame, the markets will be hard to play this year, so you might as well sit them out anyway.

I'm not 100% sure, but I think that good investments this year would be:

precious metals
enough cash to cover emergencies
arable land!
good seed
basic tools

Mike, what do you think?

[Dame]

I started at the bottom of your list and am working my way up the list.  I find the organized storage issues of real assets like tools, seeds needs to get stuffed in there somewhere.  It really slows us down.

[Ryder]

My list would read something like this:
Working knowledge (been there done that type of stuff, plus the hardcopy for details)
Water and storable food supply.
Security.
Non hybrid seed supply.
Basic hand tools for growing and repairing.
Bartable goods supply.
Cash.
Precious metals.

[Average Joe]

I can't help but believe we are on the verge of TEOTWAWKI.  So, bring it on.  I'm as ready as I will ever be.  My list is yours plus home heat and cooking, and good neighbors.

[Atash Hagmahani]

My list is yours plus home heat and cooking, and good neighbors.

Good suggestions. I can't store heating fuel, beyond the capacity of my heating "oil" tank (actually, it's just gasoline), but some can.

Good neighbors are always a blessing.

[oscar615]

I am more along the line of food/water (storage,gardening,hunting, ((bees and chickens this spring)) etc., self sufficiancy), defence, skills, Information ie. books for the skills I don't have, and then barterables.  After that, metals

[opsec]

The strategy I'm betting on is to simply live longer than everybody else. If I can do that, then I will have all the tools, seeds, land and gas I can ever hope to use.

[nwdespot]

i hear ya opsec, if i can just get through the next sixty days, i will have it to were i don't have to go anywhere for at least a year.